On October 5, 2008 Baltimore Sun columnist Dan Rodricks blogged about the voter registration for young people in Maryland. This was preceded on October 2 with a post about an elected Republican changing his party affiliation to unaffiliated and the dire condition of the Republican Party in Maryland.
Dan: Some facts.
The State Board of Elections didn't whimsically reinstate a policy allowing 17-year-olds to cast ballots or register to vote. The Attorney General opined that since someone who was eighteen on General Election Day could vote in that election, the same person should be entitled to vote in the Primary Election that selected the nominees for the ensuing General Election.
In Baltimore County, Republican registrations had been gaining on Democrats for the ten years prior to 2004. The gains were in hundredths of points, but they occurred every month.
In the last five months, the months for which I have figures handy, the Democrats have been registering three for every Republican registrant. Unaffiliated registrations were running even with Republicans, but in the last four months have been edging to a 1.25:1 ratio.
Your conclusions about what is happening and mine differ. Registrations have tended to follow the money. One party control of government always drove registrations. I know it is hard to believe, but many people are sure that their party affiliation affects their earning ability. I have lost two jobs in quasi and state government based on my affiliation. I have never gotten a job because of that.
First, let's get rid of the affiliated bases, the eighty percent of all voters who are Republican or Democrat.
Of the remainder, in Maryland, people register as Democrats to maintain jobs and receive contracts. They also donate to campaigns for those reasons. People who wish to avoid problems with affiliation register as unaffiliated. People who wish to staunch the flow of campaign literature register as unaffiliated. (This no longer works as it did decades ago because all campaigns target the unaffiliated.) One of my sons registered as unaffiliated out of a) rebellion, b) a desire not to be pigeonholed by others, and c) to avoid partisan mail. He received more mail than the three affiliated voters in the house did!
Democrats were very aggressive in conducting voter registration drives in high schools and colleges in the last four years. They were particularly effective in 2008. On Primary Election Day, people were flooding into election precincts demanding to be allowed to register and vote, or to vote in the Democrat Primary in spite of their registration as Republican or something other than Democrat. How this plays out in the General Election cannot be known.
Historically, the elections that had great turnout were the elections that presented contests to the voters. People stay home if the result is a foregone conclusion. However, if there is a contest the proverbial wild horses will not keep them home. In this respect, the media hold the cards. Gore was declared dead four weeks out. Same for Kerry. Then, the media kicked in with new poll numbers and people showed up in unprecedented numbers and the races were all too close.
During the 2008 Democrat Primary, the media declared Hilary dead in January, and then discussed how close each subsequent race was. Voter turnout was through the roof. If you build a race, they will come.
As for conclusions about Maryland, let me point to the last four gubernatorial contests. The registration numbers for each gave the Democrats a 2:1 advantage going in, but no result was even close to that. Every race was decided in single digits. My conclusion: registration numbers in one party states do not provide a sound indication of the results of political contests.
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